← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3215011
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 3.7%, down 0.2pt over 24h, on a 0.2¢ spread.
Implied probability3.7%
Bid / ask / mid3.7¢ / 3.9¢ / 3.8¢
Spread0.2¢ (5.3%)
Change 24h-0.15pt
Change 7d+2.35pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 53/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$2,163
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$7,186 / $352
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score52.8 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 0 (oversold); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.4σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.43
RSI (14, hourly)0.0
Realized vol 7d0.19pt
Change 1h-0.15pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 81d 15h.
Time to resolve81d 15h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.