← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3344145
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 12% or more?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 95.2%, down 1.3pt over 24h, on a 2.3¢ spread.
Implied probability95.2%
Bid / ask / mid95.1¢ / 97.4¢ / 96.3¢
Spread2.3¢ (2.4%)
Change 24h-1.30pt
Change 7d+92.05pt
Longshot tax+4% historically (90-99¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 53/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 34% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$2,401
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$452 / $29,122
Imbalance34% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score53.3 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 65 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.1σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.08
RSI (14, hourly)64.7
Realized vol 7d7.52pt
Change 1h+2.25pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 0h.
Time to resolve0d 0h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskmedium (45)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.