← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3347341
Will Pete Buttigieg announce a Presidential run before 2028?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 97.3%, up 12.0pt over 24h, on a 2.6¢ spread.
Implied probability97.3%
Bid / ask / mid94.2¢ / 96.8¢ / 95.5¢
Spread2.6¢ (2.7%)
Change 24h+12.00pt
Change 7d+18.00pt
Longshot tax+4% historically (90-99¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 42/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 65% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$5,808
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$652 / $9,310
Imbalance65% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score42.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 24 (oversold); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.9σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean2.91
RSI (14, hourly)24.2
Realized vol 7d2.06pt
Change 1h+0.10pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 419d 15h.
Time to resolve419d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (85)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.