← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3347356
Will Rahm Emanuel announce a Presidential run before 2028?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 77.0%, up 11.0pt over 24h, on a 3.0¢ spread.
Implied probability77.0%
Bid / ask / mid86.0¢ / 89.0¢ / 87.5¢
Spread3.0¢ (3.4%)
Change 24h+11.00pt
Change 7d+26.50pt
Longshot tax+5% historically (65-80¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 35/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 56% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$11
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$121 / $195
Imbalance56% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score35.2 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 54 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.1σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.09
RSI (14, hourly)53.8
Realized vol 7d1.35pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 419d 15h.
Time to resolve419d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (85)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 65-80¢ bucket has returned +5% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.