← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3347384
Will Ron DeSantis announce a presidential run before 2028?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 87.0%, up 9.5pt over 24h, on a 3.0¢ spread.
Implied probability87.0%
Bid / ask / mid87.0¢ / 90.0¢ / 88.5¢
Spread3.0¢ (3.4%)
Change 24h+9.50pt
Change 7d+50.50pt
Longshot tax+7% historically (80-90¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 37/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 70% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$4,030
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,905 / $2,800
Imbalance70% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score37.4 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 42 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.6σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.63
RSI (14, hourly)41.7
Realized vol 7d2.85pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 419d 15h.
Time to resolve419d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (85)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 80-90¢ bucket has returned +7% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.