← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3399451
Iran leadership change by November 30?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 3.9%, down 0.7pt over 24h, on a 0.5¢ spread.
Implied probability3.9%
Bid / ask / mid3.4¢ / 3.9¢ / 3.6¢
Spread0.5¢ (13.7%)
Change 24h-0.70pt
Change 7d-5.35pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 60/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 7% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$78,195
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$19,930 / $4,653
Imbalance7% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score59.8 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 33 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.9σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.93
RSI (14, hourly)33.3
Realized vol 7d0.35pt
Change 1h+0.20pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 23d 15h.
Time to resolve23d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (65)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.