← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3399468
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 48.0%, up 1.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability48.0%
Bid / ask / mid48.0¢ / 49.0¢ / 48.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (2.1%)
Change 24h+1.00pt
Change 7d+9.00pt
Longshot tax-9% historically (35-50¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Deep and tight (score 90/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 5% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$181,023
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$11,224 / $78,652
Imbalance5% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score89.9 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 69 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.6σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.61
RSI (14, hourly)69.2
Realized vol 7d1.38pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 54d 7h.
Time to resolve54d 7h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (85)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 35-50¢ bucket has returned -9% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.