← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3491438
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 3.0%, down 0.5pt over 24h, on a 0.8¢ spread.
Implied probability3.0%
Bid / ask / mid2.8¢ / 3.6¢ / 3.2¢
Spread0.8¢ (25.0%)
Change 24h-0.55pt
Change 7d-8.30pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 50/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$9,556
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,168 / $5,844
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score49.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 45 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.1σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.07
RSI (14, hourly)44.7
Realized vol 7d0.42pt
Change 1h-0.40pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 23d 15h.
Time to resolve23d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (85)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.