← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3580933
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 32.7%, up 2.3pt over 24h, on a 0.7¢ spread.
Implied probability32.7%
Bid / ask / mid31.5¢ / 32.2¢ / 31.9¢
Spread0.7¢ (2.2%)
Change 24h+2.25pt
Change 7d+0.65pt
Longshot tax-24% historically (20-35¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Deep and tight (score 97/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 24% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$87,503
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$77,155 / $101,535
Imbalance24% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score96.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 43 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.1σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.10
RSI (14, hourly)43.3
Realized vol 7d1.53pt
Change 1h-0.65pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 21d 15h.
Time to resolve21d 15h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (45)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 20-35¢ bucket has returned -24% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.