← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3581450
Will Lai Jui-lung win the next Kaohsiung Mayor election?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 92.0%, up 0.0pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability92.0%
Bid / ask / mid88.0¢ / 90.0¢ / 89.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (2.2%)
Change 24h+0.00pt
Change 7d+13.00pt
Longshot tax+4% historically (90-99¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 33% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$6,210
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,347 / $11,244
Imbalance33% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score46.3 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 46 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.0σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean2.05
RSI (14, hourly)45.8
Realized vol 7d1.06pt
Change 1h-0.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 21d 15h.
Time to resolve21d 15h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (45)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.