← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3725541
Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by December 31, 2027?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 64.0%, down 1.5pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability64.0%
Bid / ask / mid64.0¢ / 66.0¢ / 65.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (3.1%)
Change 24h-1.50pt
Change 7d+4.50pt
Longshot tax+2% historically (50-65¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 49/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 55% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$5,326
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$10,687 / $6,525
Imbalance55% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score48.6 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.4σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.41
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.55pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 419d 15h.
Time to resolve419d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskmedium (45)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 50-65¢ bucket has returned +2% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.