← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3728731
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) be in the next Swedish government?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 46.0%, up 13.0pt over 24h, on a 0.9¢ spread.
Implied probability46.0%
Bid / ask / mid46.6¢ / 47.5¢ / 47.0¢
Spread0.9¢ (1.9%)
Change 24h+13.00pt
Change 7d-23.30pt
Longshot tax-9% historically (35-50¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 5% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$3,109
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$703 / $350
Imbalance5% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score46.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 32 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 2.3σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean-2.34
RSI (14, hourly)31.8
Realized vol 7d3.75pt
Change 1h-0.05pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 0h.
Time to resolve0d 0h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (100)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 35-50¢ bucket has returned -9% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.