← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3728734
Will the Centre Party (C) be in the next Swedish government?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 78.0%, up 25.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability78.0%
Bid / ask / mid77.0¢ / 78.0¢ / 77.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (1.3%)
Change 24h+25.00pt
Change 7d+24.50pt
Longshot tax+5% historically (65-80¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 84% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$2,379
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,386 / $152
Imbalance84% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score45.8 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 73 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.9σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean2.92
RSI (14, hourly)72.9
Realized vol 7d1.94pt
Change 1h+3.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 0h.
Time to resolve0d 0h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (100)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 65-80¢ bucket has returned +5% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.