← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3866002
Will Solana dip to $80 by December 31, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 56.0%, down 1.0pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability56.0%
Bid / ask / mid56.0¢ / 58.0¢ / 57.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (3.5%)
Change 24h-1.00pt
Change 7d+15.00pt
Longshot tax+2% historically (50-65¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 42/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 11% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$5
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,937 / $2,317
Imbalance11% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score42.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 56 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.1σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.12
RSI (14, hourly)55.6
Realized vol 7d1.52pt
Change 1h+0.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 54d 15h.
Time to resolve54d 15h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 50-65¢ bucket has returned +2% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.