← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3866009
Will Hyperliquid dip to $60 by December 31, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 16.0%, up 3.0pt over 24h, on a 6.0¢ spread.
Implied probability16.0%
Bid / ask / mid15.0¢ / 21.0¢ / 18.0¢
Spread6.0¢ (33.3%)
Change 24h+3.00pt
Change 7d+5.00pt
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 20/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$1,023
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$28 / $52
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score20.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.5σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.48
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d1.04pt
Change 1h+1.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 54d 15h.
Time to resolve54d 15h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.