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← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3866009

Will Hyperliquid dip to $60 by December 31, 2026?

18.0% implied · bid 15.0¢ · ask 21.0¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 16.0%, up 3.0pt over 24h, on a 6.0¢ spread.

Implied probability16.0%
Bid / ask / mid15.0¢ / 21.0¢ / 18.0¢
Spread6.0¢ (33.3%)
Change 24h+3.00pt
Change 7d+5.00pt
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)

B · Liquidity & flow

Thin (score 20/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$1,023
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$28 / $52
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score20.0 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.5σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean0.48
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d1.04pt
Change 1h+1.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 54d 15h.

Time to resolve54d 15h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth

Cost to trade

Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade

Longshot tax — return by price bucket

This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.

Who holds this

Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade

Other venues

Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade

How this settles

Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.

Summary

Not published.

Expanded rules

Not published.