← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3866621
Will XRP dip to $1.00 by December 31, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 47.0%, up 3.5pt over 24h, on a 7.0¢ spread.
Implied probability47.0%
Bid / ask / mid41.0¢ / 48.0¢ / 44.5¢
Spread7.0¢ (15.7%)
Change 24h+3.50pt
Change 7d+7.50pt
Longshot tax-9% historically (35-50¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 15/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 6% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$274
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$18 / $113
Imbalance6% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score15.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 58 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.1σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean2.15
RSI (14, hourly)57.9
Realized vol 7d1.72pt
Change 1h+1.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 54d 15h.
Time to resolve54d 15h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 35-50¢ bucket has returned -9% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.