← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4030774
Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by September 30, 2027?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 31.0%, up 7.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability31.0%
Bid / ask / mid35.0¢ / 36.0¢ / 35.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (2.8%)
Change 24h+7.00pt
Change 7d-1.00pt
Longshot tax-24% historically (20-35¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 45% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$1,582
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$881 / $1,241
Imbalance45% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score46.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.8σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.81
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.96pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 327d 14h.
Time to resolve327d 14h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskmedium (45)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 20-35¢ bucket has returned -24% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.