← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4031052
Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by March 31, 2027?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 80.0%, up 30.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability80.0%
Bid / ask / mid83.0¢ / 84.0¢ / 83.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (1.2%)
Change 24h+30.00pt
Change 7d+34.00pt
Longshot tax+5% historically (65-80¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 29% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$3,845
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$862 / $738
Imbalance29% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score45.8 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 72 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.5σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean2.53
RSI (14, hourly)72.2
Realized vol 7d1.98pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 144d 14h.
Time to resolve144d 14h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (85)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 65-80¢ bucket has returned +5% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.