← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4118938
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 95.0%, up 1.1pt over 24h, on a 1.1¢ spread.
Implied probability95.0%
Bid / ask / mid95.1¢ / 96.2¢ / 95.7¢
Spread1.1¢ (1.2%)
Change 24h+1.10pt
Change 7d+21.65pt
Longshot tax+4% historically (90-99¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 60/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 67% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$8,542
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$3,196 / $28,485
Imbalance67% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score60.3 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 96 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.9σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.90
RSI (14, hourly)95.7
Realized vol 7d1.98pt
Change 1h+0.05pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 23d 15h.
Time to resolve23d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (80)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.