← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4178412
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by December 31, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 96.8%, up 2.0pt over 24h, on a 4.2¢ spread.
Implied probability96.8%
Bid / ask / mid95.0¢ / 99.2¢ / 97.1¢
Spread4.2¢ (4.3%)
Change 24h+2.05pt
Change 7d+3.75pt
Longshot tax+4% historically (90-99¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 40/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 39% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$3,473
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$2,028 / $19,891
Imbalance39% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score40.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 62 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.4σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.41
RSI (14, hourly)62.2
Realized vol 7d0.36pt
Change 1h-0.80pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 54d 10h.
Time to resolve54d 10h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (65)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.