← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4178756
Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.40% before 2027?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 27.0%, up 1.0pt over 24h, on a 8.0¢ spread.
Implied probability27.0%
Bid / ask / mid29.0¢ / 37.0¢ / 33.0¢
Spread8.0¢ (24.2%)
Change 24h+1.00pt
Change 7d+3.50pt
Longshot tax-24% historically (20-35¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 10/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 56% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$0
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$129 / $110
Imbalance56% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score10.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 63 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.5σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.46
RSI (14, hourly)62.5
Realized vol 7d1.03pt
Change 1h-0.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 53d 10h.
Time to resolve53d 10h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 20-35¢ bucket has returned -24% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.