← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4178757
Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.45% before 2027?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 52.0%, down 4.5pt over 24h, on a 9.0¢ spread.
Implied probability52.0%
Bid / ask / mid42.0¢ / 51.0¢ / 46.5¢
Spread9.0¢ (19.4%)
Change 24h-4.50pt
Change 7d+9.00pt
Longshot tax+2% historically (50-65¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 5/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 4% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$289
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$34 / $41
Imbalance4% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score5.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 49 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.8σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean2.84
RSI (14, hourly)48.9
Realized vol 7d1.87pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 53d 10h.
Time to resolve53d 10h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 50-65¢ bucket has returned +2% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.