← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4178758
Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.50% before 2027?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 56.0%, up 0.5pt over 24h, on a 10.0¢ spread.
Implied probability56.0%
Bid / ask / mid50.0¢ / 60.0¢ / 55.0¢
Spread10.0¢ (18.2%)
Change 24h+0.50pt
Change 7d+5.00pt
Longshot tax+2% historically (50-65¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 0/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 39% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$4
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$100 / $272
Imbalance39% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score0.2 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.6σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.63
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d2.14pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 53d 10h.
Time to resolve53d 10h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 50-65¢ bucket has returned +2% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.