← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4199436
Will USD be less than 2.0M Iranian rials on December 31?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 10.0%, up 0.0pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability10.0%
Bid / ask / mid8.0¢ / 10.0¢ / 9.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (22.2%)
Change 24h+0.00pt
Change 7d+3.50pt
Longshot tax-60% historically (0-10¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 40/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$730
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$667 / $169
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score40.4 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 60 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.2σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.24
RSI (14, hourly)60.0
Realized vol 7d0.81pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 54d 10h.
Time to resolve54d 10h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 0-10¢ bucket has returned -60% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.