← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4199438
Will USD be between 2.5M and 3.0M Iranian rials on December 31?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 46.0%, up 6.0pt over 24h, on a 3.0¢ spread.
Implied probability46.0%
Bid / ask / mid41.0¢ / 44.0¢ / 42.5¢
Spread3.0¢ (7.1%)
Change 24h+6.00pt
Change 7d+11.00pt
Longshot tax-9% historically (35-50¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 35/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 3% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$1,088
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$405 / $592
Imbalance3% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score35.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 77 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.7σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean2.74
RSI (14, hourly)77.3
Realized vol 7d1.61pt
Change 1h+1.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 54d 10h.
Time to resolve54d 10h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 35-50¢ bucket has returned -9% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.