← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4218313
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 97.4%, down 1.9pt over 24h, on a 0.5¢ spread.
Implied probability97.4%
Bid / ask / mid96.5¢ / 97.0¢ / 96.8¢
Spread0.5¢ (0.5%)
Change 24h-1.90pt
Change 7d+19.25pt
Longshot tax+4% historically (90-99¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 54/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 62% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$13,256
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,813 / $10,361
Imbalance62% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score53.6 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 35 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.3σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.31
RSI (14, hourly)35.0
Realized vol 7d0.86pt
Change 1h+0.05pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 54d 15h.
Time to resolve54d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (65)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.