← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4319439
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 77.0%, up 21.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability77.0%
Bid / ask / mid78.0¢ / 79.0¢ / 78.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (1.3%)
Change 24h+21.00pt
Change 7d-1.00pt
Longshot tax+5% historically (65-80¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 61/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 34% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$57,759
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$3,489 / $27,851
Imbalance34% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score60.7 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 12 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.1σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.13
RSI (14, hourly)11.5
Realized vol 7d2.96pt
Change 1h+0.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 23d 16h.
Time to resolve23d 16h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (85)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 65-80¢ bucket has returned +5% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.