← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4319441
Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 86.0%, up 20.0pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability86.0%
Bid / ask / mid84.0¢ / 86.0¢ / 85.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (2.4%)
Change 24h+20.00pt
Change 7d+4.50pt
Longshot tax+7% historically (80-90¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 69/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 30% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$21,942
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$3,124 / $54,821
Imbalance30% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score69.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 9 (oversold); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.1σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.15
RSI (14, hourly)9.1
Realized vol 7d2.71pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 38d 16h.
Time to resolve38d 16h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (85)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 80-90¢ bucket has returned +7% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.