← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4338142
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2027?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 67.0%, up 0.0pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability67.0%
Bid / ask / mid66.0¢ / 68.0¢ / 67.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (3.0%)
Change 24h+0.00pt
Change 7d-0.50pt
Longshot tax+5% historically (65-80¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 42/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 19% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$32
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$2,752 / $1,121
Imbalance19% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score41.9 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 43 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.6σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.64
RSI (14, hourly)42.9
Realized vol 7d0.30pt
Change 1h-1.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 388d 15h.
Time to resolve388d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (85)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 65-80¢ bucket has returned +5% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.