← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4391801
Will Brazil's Q3 2026 GDP growth rate (QoQ) be less than -0.3%?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 40.2%, down 5.0pt over 24h, on a 4.8¢ spread.
Implied probability40.2%
Bid / ask / mid40.2¢ / 45.0¢ / 42.6¢
Spread4.8¢ (11.3%)
Change 24h-5.00pt
Change 7d+12.40pt
Longshot tax-9% historically (35-50¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 26/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 3% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$1,103
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$243 / $221
Imbalance3% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score26.2 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 36 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.7σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.74
RSI (14, hourly)35.8
Realized vol 7d1.17pt
Change 1h-0.15pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 24d 10h.
Time to resolve24d 10h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 35-50¢ bucket has returned -9% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.