← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4391804
Will Brazil's Q3 2026 GDP growth rate (QoQ) be between 0.3% and 0.5%?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 3.3%, down 0.5pt over 24h, on a 2.9¢ spread.
Implied probability3.3%
Bid / ask / mid1.4¢ / 4.3¢ / 2.9¢
Spread2.9¢ (101.8%)
Change 24h-0.50pt
Change 7d-3.20pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 36/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$112
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$14 / $9
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score35.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 39 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.4σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.44
RSI (14, hourly)38.6
Realized vol 7d0.70pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 24d 10h.
Time to resolve24d 10h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.