← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4393418
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the December interest rate announcement?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 26.0%, down 3.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability26.0%
Bid / ask / mid26.0¢ / 27.0¢ / 26.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (3.8%)
Change 24h-3.00pt
Change 7d-12.50pt
Longshot tax-24% historically (20-35¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 47/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 22% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$762
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,407 / $1,755
Imbalance22% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score46.6 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 0 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 2.1σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean-2.14
RSI (14, hourly)0.0
Realized vol 7d1.37pt
Change 1h-0.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 31d 10h.
Time to resolve31d 10h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (30)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 20-35¢ bucket has returned -24% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.