← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4397050
Will Invictus Gaming win Worlds 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 8.0%, up 1.0pt over 24h, on a 0.7¢ spread.
Implied probability8.0%
Bid / ask / mid7.2¢ / 7.9¢ / 7.5¢
Spread0.7¢ (9.3%)
Change 24h+1.00pt
Change 7d-0.20pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 63/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 16% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$110,234
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$13,427 / $20,090
Imbalance16% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score63.3 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 68 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.6σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.62
RSI (14, hourly)68.1
Realized vol 7d0.40pt
Change 1h-0.30pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 21d 15h.
Time to resolve21d 15h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (20)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.