← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4412200
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 12.0%, down 0.1pt over 24h, on a 0.2¢ spread.
Implied probability12.0%
Bid / ask / mid12.0¢ / 12.2¢ / 12.1¢
Spread0.2¢ (1.7%)
Change 24h-0.05pt
Change 7d-2.20pt
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 57/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 30% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$1,808
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$9,979 / $5,484
Imbalance30% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score56.7 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.4σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.44
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.13pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 54d 15h.
Time to resolve54d 15h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskhigh (70)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.