← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4412201
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 56.0%, up 0.5pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability56.0%
Bid / ask / mid55.0¢ / 56.0¢ / 55.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (1.8%)
Change 24h+0.50pt
Change 7d+1.00pt
Longshot tax+2% historically (50-65¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 51/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 40% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$553
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$2,956 / $9,222
Imbalance40% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score51.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 100 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.2σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.18
RSI (14, hourly)100.0
Realized vol 7d0.39pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 419d 15h.
Time to resolve419d 15h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskhigh (70)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 50-65¢ bucket has returned +2% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.