← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4412321
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 88.0%, up 3.5pt over 24h, on a 3.0¢ spread.
Implied probability88.0%
Bid / ask / mid85.0¢ / 88.0¢ / 86.5¢
Spread3.0¢ (3.5%)
Change 24h+3.50pt
Change 7d+14.50pt
Longshot tax+7% historically (80-90¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 43/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 6% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$5,650
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$7,501 / $8,147
Imbalance6% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score42.8 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 0 (oversold); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.2σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean2.20
RSI (14, hourly)0.0
Realized vol 7d0.91pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 54d 15h.
Time to resolve54d 15h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskhigh (70)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 80-90¢ bucket has returned +7% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.