← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4418521
Will the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 20.0%, up 1.7pt over 24h, on a 1.5¢ spread.
Implied probability20.0%
Bid / ask / mid20.3¢ / 21.8¢ / 21.1¢
Spread1.5¢ (7.1%)
Change 24h+1.75pt
Change 7d+0.10pt
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 44/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 9% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$1,459
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,444 / $1,402
Imbalance9% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score43.9 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 75 (overbought); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.2σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.20
RSI (14, hourly)75.0
Realized vol 7d0.19pt
Change 1h+0.05pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 419d 15h.
Time to resolve419d 15h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskhigh (70)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.