← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4487264
Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by October 31?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 62.7%, up 6.6pt over 24h, on a 14.1¢ spread.
Implied probability62.7%
Bid / ask / mid48.4¢ / 62.5¢ / 55.5¢
Spread14.1¢ (25.4%)
Change 24h+6.55pt
Change 7d+51.10pt
Longshot tax+2% historically (50-65¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 0/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 35% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$78,007
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$0 / $0
Imbalance35% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score0.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 61 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.1σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean2.06
RSI (14, hourly)61.2
Realized vol 7d4.30pt
Change 1h-4.70pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 0h.
Time to resolve0d 0h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (65)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 50-65¢ bucket has returned +2% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.