← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4487265
Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by December 31?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 73.0%, up 8.0pt over 24h, on a 3.0¢ spread.
Implied probability73.0%
Bid / ask / mid72.0¢ / 75.0¢ / 73.5¢
Spread3.0¢ (4.1%)
Change 24h+8.00pt
Change 7d+52.00pt
Longshot tax+5% historically (65-80¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 35/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 9% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$16,924
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$75 / $791
Imbalance9% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score35.4 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 69 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.9σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.91
RSI (14, hourly)68.5
Realized vol 7d3.59pt
Change 1h-2.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 54d 15h.
Time to resolve54d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (65)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 65-80¢ bucket has returned +5% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.