← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4554099
Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + MP + C?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 12.4%, up 3.4pt over 24h, on a 2.4¢ spread.
Implied probability12.4%
Bid / ask / mid7.8¢ / 10.2¢ / 9.0¢
Spread2.4¢ (26.7%)
Change 24h+3.40pt
Change 7d-3.30pt
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 38/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$1,107
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$72 / $150
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score38.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 52 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.1σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.06
RSI (14, hourly)52.1
Realized vol 7d1.66pt
Change 1h+0.10pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 266d 14h.
Time to resolve266d 14h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (100)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.