← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4554109
Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include M + KD + L + C?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 38.2%, up 8.3pt over 24h, on a 4.6¢ spread.
Implied probability38.2%
Bid / ask / mid45.3¢ / 49.9¢ / 47.6¢
Spread4.6¢ (9.7%)
Change 24h+8.30pt
Change 7d+35.40pt
Longshot tax-9% historically (35-50¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 27/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 5% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$5,788
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$142 / $465
Imbalance5% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score27.3 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 45 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.1σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean2.14
RSI (14, hourly)44.6
Realized vol 7d1.70pt
Change 1h-0.35pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 266d 14h.
Time to resolve266d 14h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (100)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 35-50¢ bucket has returned -9% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.