← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4599796
Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 32.0%, up 2.5pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability32.0%
Bid / ask / mid30.0¢ / 32.0¢ / 31.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (6.5%)
Change 24h+2.50pt
Change 7d+2.00pt
Longshot tax-24% historically (20-35¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 57/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 22% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$25,980
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$31,672 / $1,785
Imbalance22% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score56.7 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 38 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.0σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.03
RSI (14, hourly)37.5
Realized vol 7d1.49pt
Change 1h-2.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 54d 15h.
Time to resolve54d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (80)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 20-35¢ bucket has returned -24% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.