← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4617383
Fed rate cut by June 2027 meeting?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 31.0%, up 1.0pt over 24h, on a 38.0¢ spread.
Implied probability31.0%
Bid / ask / mid12.0¢ / 50.0¢ / 31.0¢
Spread38.0¢ (122.6%)
Change 24h+1.00pt
Change 7d-5.50pt
Longshot tax-24% historically (20-35¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 0/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 69% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$0
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$0 / $0
Imbalance69% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score0.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 0 (oversold); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.6σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.60
RSI (14, hourly)0.0
Realized vol 7d0.93pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 242d 14h.
Time to resolve242d 14h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (50)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 20-35¢ bucket has returned -24% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.