← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4617384

Fed rate cut by April 2027 meeting?

48.0% implied · bid 22.0¢ · ask 74.0¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 32.0%, up 0.5pt over 24h, on a 52.0¢ spread.

Implied probability32.0%

Bid / ask / mid22.0¢ / 74.0¢ / 48.0¢

Spread52.0¢ (108.3%)

Change 24h+0.50pt

Change 7d-2.50pt

Longshot tax-24% historically (20-35¢ bucket)

B · Liquidity & flow

Thin (score 0/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 25% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$0

Volume qualityPro

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$0 / $0

Imbalance25% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score0.0 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 100 (overbought); price is below its 7-day mean by 4.1σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean-4.10

RSI (14, hourly)100.0

Realized vol 7d2.10pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 181d 14h.

Time to resolve181d 14h

Resolution sourcedocumented

Rules riskmedium (50)

Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth

Cost to trade

Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade

Longshot tax — return by price bucket

This market's 20-35¢ bucket has returned -24% per $1, historically.

Who holds this

Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade

Other venues

Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade

How this settles

Settlement sourcesNot published.

DeadlineNot published.

Close → settlementNot published.

Summary

Not published.

Expanded rules

Not published.