← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4662014
Will Kraken be first to list tokenized stocks in the US?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 15.7%, down 1.1pt over 24h, on a 3.9¢ spread.
Implied probability15.7%
Bid / ask / mid13.0¢ / 16.9¢ / 14.9¢
Spread3.9¢ (26.1%)
Change 24h-1.05pt
Change 7d+1.40pt
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 31/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 2% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$643
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$237 / $92
Imbalance2% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score30.7 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 53 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.0σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.03
RSI (14, hourly)52.7
Realized vol 7d0.99pt
Change 1h+0.20pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 419d 15h.
Time to resolve419d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (85)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.