← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4713374
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 25.0%, down 5.0pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability25.0%
Bid / ask / mid24.0¢ / 26.0¢ / 25.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (8.0%)
Change 24h-5.00pt
Change 7d+10.00pt
Longshot tax-24% historically (20-35¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 40/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 4% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$849
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$67 / $365
Imbalance4% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score40.2 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 82 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.4σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean2.37
RSI (14, hourly)81.8
Realized vol 7d1.20pt
Change 1h-0.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 40d 10h.
Time to resolve40d 10h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (30)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 20-35¢ bucket has returned -24% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.