← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4713375
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 76.0%, up 9.5pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability76.0%
Bid / ask / mid74.0¢ / 75.0¢ / 74.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (1.3%)
Change 24h+9.50pt
Change 7d-4.00pt
Longshot tax+5% historically (65-80¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 43% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$924
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$612 / $1,072
Imbalance43% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score45.8 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 23 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.5σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.52
RSI (14, hourly)23.1
Realized vol 7d1.43pt
Change 1h+0.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 40d 10h.
Time to resolve40d 10h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (30)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 65-80¢ bucket has returned +5% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.