← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4743423
Will Saudi airspace be closed by December 31?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 6.0%, down 2.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability6.0%
Bid / ask / mid5.0¢ / 6.0¢ / 5.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (18.2%)
Change 24h-2.00pt
Change 7d-7.50pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 48/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 2% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$20,762
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$2,494 / $4,064
Imbalance2% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score48.3 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 33 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.6σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.57
RSI (14, hourly)33.3
Realized vol 7d1.01pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 54d 15h.
Time to resolve54d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (80)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.