← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4797672
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.5% before 2027?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 15.0%, down 3.3pt over 24h, on a 2.9¢ spread.
Implied probability15.0%
Bid / ask / mid11.4¢ / 14.3¢ / 12.8¢
Spread2.9¢ (22.6%)
Change 24h-3.25pt
Change 7d+1.35pt
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 36/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 5% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$45
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$663 / $295
Imbalance5% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score36.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 3 (oversold); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.8σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.80
RSI (14, hourly)2.7
Realized vol 7d0.95pt
Change 1h-0.05pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 53d 10h.
Time to resolve53d 10h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.