← Explore · Polymarket · Market 4824666
Will Together be in the next Israeli government?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 73.0%, up 3.0pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability73.0%
Bid / ask / mid73.0¢ / 75.0¢ / 74.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (2.7%)
Change 24h+3.00pt
Change 7d+32.50pt
Longshot tax+5% historically (65-80¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 41/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 3% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$235
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$267 / $1,030
Imbalance3% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score40.6 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.9σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.94
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d2.43pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 235d 10h.
Time to resolve235d 10h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskhigh (85)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 65-80¢ bucket has returned +5% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.